Russia-U.S. Caucasus Confrontation Not Likely to Entail Military Actions

Experts believe Russia-U.S. Caucasus confrontation will not develop into military actions, though Russia does not rule out the possibility.

"The Russia-U.S. confrontation format in Caucasus and in the entire Caspian region will not develop into a full-scale military campaign," Azerbaijani expert Rashad Rzaguliyev, President of the Azerbaijani Fund for Social Developments, said to Trend News.

The Black Sea area has become the arena of international military trainings. During the summer the territory hosted U.S.-Georgia, Ukraine-NATO and Russia’s North Caucasus trainings.

There are several unsettled conflicts in the Caucasus – Georgia-Abkhazia and Georgia-Ossetia, as well as the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict....

Observers say the conflicts may be settled through collision [collusion?] of Russia’s and United States’ interests.

According to Russian expert Grigori Trofimchuk, Vice-President of Strategic Development Modeling Centre, Russia is being pushed not only for conflicts but military confrontation.

Trofimchuk said Russia may be provoked for a conflict at any point of South Caucasus and Transcaucasia, including Azerbaijan and its Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

He believes the political situation in Azerbaijan is steady and stable. But the Karabakh situation may be escalated by a third party at any moment. In that case, the situation will leave the stable stage which it has been experiencing for a quite long period.

The situation in Georgia is tenser.

"Should we take several hot spots in the Caucasus, the situation in the region will just get out of the control of both Russia and the Caucasus. So, it will be regulated by external forces – by a third side. And the situation will be rapidly developing on a negative scenario," Trofimchuk said to Trend News on 6 August.

However, many experts do not agree that the Caucasus conflicts will cause military actions. According to Rzaguliyev, the United States’ activity in the region is intended for preparation of strategic positions for a military attack on Iran.

He thinks the States tries to soften Russia’s position in terms of the future conflicts and to push the country to a refusal from military and political support to Iran. He said the States is using Georgia as a tool to impact official Moscow.

[Source: By V Shavoronkova, Trend News Agency, Azerbaijan, 08Aug08]

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